Why this title reverse the Winston Churchill’s quote “to jaw -jaw is always better than to war -war”?
Because we have to consider that there are many kinds of war, there is the fight war (the classic “version”), but there are also economic and diplomatic ones, and what happened between Turkey and Russia during the last months is the clear evidence that many words have been spent, but nothing has been done.
Who’s wrong and who’s right?
Ankara find itself between the devil and the deep blue sea because it can’t intervene with its Army (as it would do) in that area, because it could find a wall “made” of Russia and Assad but also of the U.S.A. (the Kurds protectors), the Nato and Iran. At the same time, the Turkish government feel that it must do something to avoid a future establishment of a Kurd State (the Erdogan’s obsession), and in this sense it is a hidden supporter of Isis.
Moscow is pursuing a long term politics of power, which does have to reaffirm the Russian Federation as global power after twenty five years of darkness. In this way, Mr. Putin must defend its interests in the topic areas of the Russian economy or strategic power and Syria, with its president Assad, and Kurds are parts of the game. Russia is just trying to break the nets that the Western world weaved against it: we can clearly compare its actions with what the US and the Eu Countries have always done without any respect of UNO charts or the sovereignty of the States.
So the Russian economic sanctions and the retaliation anti-Turkish agenda, are the consequences of bad Turkish behaviours like the shot down of the Russian jet and the anti-Kurds politics pursued by Ankara.
We find ourselves in front of two emerging States, historically enemies, belonging to opposite side of power (the Nato for Turkey and Russia goes alone) that are aggressively prosecuting their interests in the same area: we have to be happy if a larger war it is not burst out yet.